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M'gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund

Fri 20 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 10 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

M'gladbach win: 44.8%

Draw: 19.5%

Borussia Dortmund win: 35.7%

Predicted: M'gladbach

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 49.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.26

More corners: Borussia Dortmund (48.9% home / 51.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: M'gladbach

Yes

Probability M'gladbach wins or draws: 51.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result M'gladbach Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 36%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Favorite Avoids Defeat M'gladbach win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (52.0% model probability) Medium

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.